Stocks Rise as Markets Extend Gains Entering Thanksgiving Holiday; Major Indexes on Track for Biggest Weekly Surge Since June

Retailers Hype—and Hope for—a Busy Black Friday This Year

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Let the cash registers ring.

Retailers are working hard to beckon Americans on Black Friday, one of the busiest shopping days of the year. Companies are rolling out digital wishlists, running sweepstakes, and setting up elaborate in-store displays. Nordstrom’s flagship Seattle store will feature funhouse-style mirrors and digital palm readings, and Bloomingdale’s will wrap its Manhattan headquarters in a jumbo Burberry scarf.

Millions of Americans are expected to browse and buy between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, though many started their holiday shopping early this year. Online sales this Friday may total $18 billion, according to estimates from Salesforce, which provides software to retailers. The five-day “cyber week”—from Thanksgiving to Monday—may bring $78 billion in sales, Salesforce said.

The National Retail Federation expects holiday-season spending to crack $1 trillion for the first time. But the 3.7% to 4.2% year-over-year increase NRF is expecting comes as inflation is trending near 2.7%. and consumer confidence is sliding. Some surveys show Americans aim to spend less this year and, by some accounts, even affluent Americans may be experiencing fatigue.

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–Sarina Trangle

Robinhood Stock Surges on Latest Prediction Markets Offering

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Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is leaning into prediction markets. Traders are leaning into the stock.

Shares of Robinhood surged 6.5% to pace S&P 500 gainers early Wednesday, a day after the trading platform announced it would be partnering with Susquehanna International Group on a futures and derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.

“Robinhood is seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum,” Robinhood VP and General Manager of Futures and International JB Mackenzie said. “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers.”

Prediction markets are Robinhood’s fastest-growing product line by revenue, with 9 billion contracts traded by more than 1 million customers in its first year since launch, the company said.

In a related move, the exchange is acquiring MIAXdx, a wholly owned subsidiary of Miami International Holdings (MIAX) that clears and executes derivatives trades. Miami International will hold a 10% equity stake in the exchange, which is expected to launch in 2026, Robinhood said. Miami International shares rose about 2% Wednesday.

Robinhood shares have more than tripled this year.

A December Fed Cut Is in Play Again—But What Would It Really Mean for Mortgage Rates?

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Financial markets are once again betting the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point at its Dec. 10 meeting, assigning a nearly 85% probability at the time of this writing.

That’s a sharp pivot from just a week ago, when odds were split on whether the Fed would cut or hold, and even more dramatic given that as recently as five days ago, markets were widely expecting a December pause.Part of the volatility stems from the lack of timely government data following the recent shutdown. But it also reflects the competing pressures the Fed is trying to balance. Inflation remains higher than policymakers want—typically an argument for keeping rates elevated—while the job market has shown signs of weakness, which would normally support a case for cuts.

On Friday, though, public comments from a key Fed policymaker saying he was open to a December cut quickly shifted sentiment. Fed-funds futures traders moved to price in a strong probability of a committee-announced cut on Dec. 10, reversing the earlier expectation of a hold.

All of this underscores how quickly rate-cut expectations can swing. Markets react not only to economic data but also to how investors read the Fed’s communications, broader financial conditions, and even geopolitical risks. With so many moving parts, the odds of a December cut could shift again before the meeting.

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–Sabrina Karl

This AI Chip Stock Is Getting a Big Boost From Google’s Hot Streak

1 hr 48 min ago

Alphabet’s stock has been on a roll lately. One big beneficiary of that move? Broadcom.

The rise in shares of Alphabet, Google’s parent company, has helped inject some energy back into a flagging AI trade. That’s had knock-on effects on a range of tech stocks—though few have benefitted as much as Broadcom (AVGO), which counts Google as a major customer for its AI chips.

Broadcom’s shares have surged recently, climbing along with Alphabet’s (GOOGL, GOOG), which have been lifted by a series of positive developments for the cloud giant from a vote of confidence from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway to an upbeat reception for its latest AI model and signs of a new deal involving its chips.

Alphabet shares advanced around 2% to finish at a fresh high Tuesday, and have added about 17% since Berkshire’s stake was revealed in a regulatory filing a little over a week ago.

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–Kara Greenberg

Autodesk Stock Pops as Digital Design Software Maker Raises Full-Year Outlook

2 hr 27 min ago

Autodesk’s finance chief says the digital design software maker has “current momentum.” Shareholders appear to agree.

Shares of Autodesk (ADSK) surged 8% in premarket trading Wednesday, a day after the firm reported third-quarter results above expectation and lifted its full-year outlook.

The San Francisco-based company, which is known for its AutoCAD software, posted adjusted earnings of $2.67 per share on revenue that rose 18% year-over-year to $1.85 billion. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha expected $2.50 and $1.81 billion, respectively.

Autodesk raised its full-year projections for adjusted EPS to $10.18 to $10.25 from the previous range of $9.80 to $9.98, and for revenue to $7.15 billion to $7.165 billion, up from $7.025 billion to $7.075 billion.

“The macroeconomic environment has been broadly stable though uncertainty remains elevated, and we have so far successfully executed our sales and marketing optimization plan,” Autodesk CFO Janesh Moorjani said. “We are raising our full-year guidance to reflect the current momentum of the business.”

Autodesk shares entered Wednesday near flat on the year.

Polymarket Just Got CFTC Sign-Off. Prediction Markets Are on the March

2 hr 58 min ago

Polymarket is back on American shores.

The popular predictions marketplace operator said late Tuesday that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission cleared the way for U.S. customers to bet on events—whether they’re central bank policy moves or how the Packers will fare against the Lions come Thanksgiving—through their brokerages.1

Polymarket’s regulatory clearance to return to the U.S. coincides with a boom in events trading, with pretty much every fintech platform from Robinhood (HOOD) to Coinbase Global (COIN), along with sports gambling purveyor DraftKings (DKNG) and Trump Media & Technolgy (DJT), angling for a piece of the action.

Experts believe something akin to a gold rush could come to the predictions business. Bank of America analysts earlier this month noted that more than two dozen sportsbooks were chasing users in 2020, with many taking steep losses along the way. “Unchecked, this is what [prediction markets] could look like in 2026,” they wrote.

Prediction markets continue to extend into a range of forums. Yahoo Finance earlier this month said Polymarket would power a prediction markets hub. And Google said it would add “support for prediction markets data” from Kalshi and Polymarket.

Read the full article here.

–Crystal Kim

Stock Futures Point Further Higher Entering Thanksgiving Holiday

3 hr 52 min ago

Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.2%.

S&P 500 futures advanced 0.3%.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%.