Costco’s latest monthly sales report is giving Jim Cramer a new reason to feel better about the stock. On Wednesday evening, Costco reported overall same-store sales, also called comparables or comps, increased 11.4% in September. Excluding gas and currency fluctuations, core comps rose 7.6%. The pace of growth last month increased from August. Jim is especially encouraged by the fact that Costco’s business is showing strength independent of gasoline sales, which can distort monthly results. “If you strip out gasoline, you got 8% growth [in the U.S.], and that’s really terrific,” he said during Thursday’s Morning Meeting . Gas prices have been a major pain point for consumers due to Iran war-elevated oil prices. During last month’s fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter earnings call, CEO Ron Vachris said Costco’s gas business had a record year. While barely profitable, gas is a crucial part of the business because its below-retail prices draw customers to warehouse locations. More traffic at the pumps means the opportunity for more shoppers to go inside and buy things. The bite of sticky inflation is also being felt in other everyday items such as groceries. “When times get a little tougher, you go to Costco, and you save a lot of money.” Due to its membership and buy-in-bulk models, Costco has always been the place to get lower prices. That’s particularly important now as people have become even more discerning about their spending. In a tough market on Thursday, Costco stock rose nearly 1% on what Jim called “very good numbers.” Even before that, Costco shares have been perking up, gaining more than 5% since the company reported better-than-expected fiscal Q4 results on Sept. 24. The upward trajectory in the stock is making Jim feel a little better about Costco’s expensive price to earnings ratio. Shares are trading at a little over 41 times forward earnings estimates, more than double the S & P 500 ‘s forward P/E. COST YTD mountain Costco YTD UBS shared in Jim’s positive view of Costco’s September sales. In a note to clients on Thursday, the analysts said, “The broader takeaway is that Costco continues to deliver value in an environment where consumers are increasingly seeking it.” They pointed to several factors that contributed to the stronger monthly results, including Costco’s investment in lower prices on everyday goods following a $184 million tariff refund. On the earnings call, the company said the tariff refund was only a little more than one-third of the total it is owed. So, with additional refunds on the way, UBS said it might allow Costco to further reduce prices. The UBS analysts also highlighted Costco’s expanding delivery options for online orders as a potential growth driver moving forward. On the call, management said the company’s DoorDash and Uber Eats partnerships went nationwide. “These partnerships will complement the successful long-term partnership that we’ve had with Instacart in the US and Canada,” CFO Gary Millerchip said. Wolfe Research, however, was not as enthusiastic. While acknowledging Costco’s 8% U.S. core comp growth exceeded Wall Street estimates, the analysts noted the results were closer to the higher 8% to 9% growth that many in the market had anticipated. Wolfe said Costco benefitted from the timing of Labor Day Weekend, which fell later on the 2026 calendar. Accounting for the shift, the analysts estimated that core U.S. comps would have increased only around 7.3%. There’s one monthly sales report out next month in advance of Costco’s fiscal 2027 first quarter. While fiscal Q4 revenue and earnings beat, concerns about slowing membership growth and renewal persist. It’s something Jim has been worried about. Additionally, both USB and Wolfe cite membership trends as wildcards in their forecasts. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long COST. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Source link