ECB hikes rates as expected, but questions remain

The European Central Bank has voted to raise its key deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% from 2.25% in a move widely expected by investors.

But uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran war continues to cloud the outlook for the ECB’s longer-term policy path, market watchers say, and investors will be watching closely for signals in policymakers’ remarks later on Thursday.

Markets priced in a 100% chance of the 25 basis points hike ahead of Thursday’s meeting, according to LSEG data.

ECB officials have said since the U.S.-Iran war broke out that they would take a meeting-by-meeting approach to monetary policy. The central bank’s rates-setting Governing Council will hold a press conference in Berlin, scheduled for 8:45 a.m. E.T., following the decision.

The move comes days after data showed inflation in the euro zone hit 3.3% in August, with energy inflation surging to 14.3%.

The euro zone, a net importer of energy, has seen inflation above the ECB’s 2% target since the war in the Middle East threatened commodity transit through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to spike and remain volatile.

Government borrowing costs have also risen drastically in recent weeks, with European bond yields hitting multi-decade highs as intensifying conflict in the Middle East led investors to price in higher inflation and rate hikes.

The ECB raised rates in June for the first time since 2023, bringing its key interest rate to 2.25% and making it the first major central bank to enact a hike in response to the war.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said at the time that there were upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth, but she stressed that policymakers are “not pre-committing to a particular rate path.”

The ECB held interest rates steady at its subsequent meeting, with its Governing Council saying it was “closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the [energy] shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects.”

Felix Feather, an economist at Aberdeen, said in a Wednesday note ahead of the decision that there remains “a path to a protracted hold of interest rates at 2.5%” after Thursday’s meeting.

“The eurozone economy has proved more resilient than the ECB expected, while high energy prices, stronger forward-looking wage trackers, and somewhat elevated market-based inflation expectations will keep policymakers focused on upside risks.”

“Underlying inflation measures have continued to ease, wage pressures remain relatively contained and there is still only sparse evidence that the energy shock is generating widespread second-round effects,” he said.

“However, this would probably require the US and Iran to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East to ease energy markets, something that doesn’t seem imminent at the present moment.”

Uncertainty around the ECB’s rate path has divided investors: a survey by Deutsche Bank of its clients over the past week showed no consensus about where Thursday’s decision would sit in the central bank’s hiking cycle.

Deutsche Bank economists said in a note on Tuesday that more than a third of respondents agreed with their view that the ECB would take its key rate to a peak of 2.75%. One in four say the ECB will hold rates at 2.5%.

Another quarter of respondents saw the cycle ending with a 3% terminal rate, suggesting two more hikes before the ECB’s tightening cycle is through.